In this paper, we (I and rising democracy reform star Maia Cook of Yale) model how the 2022 election would have turned out had people under 40 voted at the same rate as people 65+.
tl;dr: Very differently.
The paper describes a model that calculates a hypothetical 2022 election for each congressional district, assuming people under 40 voted at the same rate as people 65 or older. Using actual turnout data, we first calculate the number of available new votes for each age bracket. Using data from Catalist, we divide those new votes between the Republican and Democratic candidates. As described in the paper, we try two ways to divide “moderate” voters. Under the more conservative method, the House shifts Blue, from 222R/213D, to 205R/230D. The Senate stays the same. Under a second method for dividing moderate votes, the Senate adds two Democrats — including returning Tim Ryan from Ohio (and so, no Senator Vance).
The details are in the paper. Here’s a video introducing the same:
