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Afterthoughts: the next four years
In the weeks leading up to the election, I told anyone who asked that I had never been more afraid of any event ever. A dozen days later, I am still working through just how awful I fear things will be.
There is already too much written about why Harris lost this election. Obvious strategic mistakes — like not accepting Joe Rogan’s invitation — will forever baffle me. Likewise, with the incredible spending on staff: I’m with Hilary Rosen that we deserve an accounting. I’ll hold off saying more till we see something more.
In this essay, I work through all the things I hope I’m wrong about. Donald Trump made many promises and many threats. Here I identify those I am most fearful of. I intend this to be a living document, updated throughout the term. (Email me if you’d like to help keep it up to date. (If the random missives in my inbox are any indication, mine is apparently the easiest email address to find on the Internet.))
First, a general point. What distinguishes this election is not that the other side won. The other side is not a side; it is a man. What I fear most is that we’ve become Argentina, and Trump is our Peron. The winners of this election were not Republicans; they were Trumpists. I respect many who have tried to wrap the man in coherent policies. I think that effort is wholly misguided.
But we’ll see. I genuinely want to be surprised and want each of the fears outlined below to be proven wrong. Let time tell.
Tax cuts for the rich
In both his 2016 and 2024 campaigns, Trump promised middle-class tax cuts. His actual 2017 tax cut was not a middle-class tax cut at all. I fear that the tax cuts in this administration won’t be any different: we’ll see the 2017 tax cut renewed or extended and no effective tax relief for the middle class. One estimate sees it raising taxes for 95% of Americans.
A tariff that explodes inflation
For anyone who knows anything about economic history, certainly the craziest of Trump’s promises was the across-the-board tariffs, with an especially high tariff against China. Maybe it’s a negotiating strategy — let’s hope. But if he carries through with this…
